1.2Business Context

Global climate ambitions remain high, yet delivery is increasingly constrained by political cycles, economic uncertainty, and disparate policy execution. Mainstream energy scenarios now converge on a trajectory in which global warming exceeds 2°C by the end of the century¹. Under current assumptions, the International Energy Agency projects warming of approximately 2.5°C in its Stated Policies Scenario and close to 2.9°C under existing policies.  And while technological pathways for decarbonization are well established, progress is lagging due to the scale of investment required and the pace of implementation.

At the same time, global energy demand continues to grow. By 2035, total energy consumption is expected to increase by 8–15%, driven almost entirely by emerging economies. Efficiency improvements and electrification play a meaningful role in moderating demand growth, but they are not sufficient to offset the structural expansion of energy needs.

Digitalization is adding a new and rapidly growing layer of demand, with electricity consumption from data centers expected to double within the next five years. The transition itself is introducing new structural risks. Supply chains for critical minerals are highly concentrated, creating exposure to geopolitical and trade disruptions.

Within this context, the energy transition is advancing, with electricity becoming the dominant energy carrier and renewables expanding at scale. Meanwhile, oil and gas are expected to remain integral to the global energy system for decades. Depending on policy outcomes, oil demand may peak within the next decade, but under current policy settings it could continue to grow well beyond it. Natural gas follows a similar trajectory, remaining essential for power generation and industrial applications, peaking later than oil in more ambitious transition pathways.

In the near term, geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility is likely to influence investment decisions, delaying less resilient projects. Over the longer term, the need to replace declining reserves supports solid market fundamentals. Capital allocation in new energy solutions is becoming increasingly selective, with greater emphasis on scalability, resilience, and returns.

Together, these trends reinforce the importance of balanced portfolios, disciplined investment, and technology advancement. As these dynamics reshape the global energy landscape, the offshore environment emerges as an increasingly strategic domain for both traditional and new energy value chains.